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The long awaited “Draft Report” into climate change by Ross Garnaut was released yesterday. I’m not among the few who have read it (537 pages) so any comments are based on newspaper and internet reporting and analysis.

It seems to be conveying the same general message as the Stern report: the science says climate change is inevitable unless drastic CO2 emission reductions are achieved. Devastation to the Great Barrier Reef, Kakadu flooded and further damage to the Murray Darling basin are all envisaged. Since Stern, science is coming to the view that change is happening more rapidly therefore the costs of inaction have also increased.

 Garnaut (an economist like Stern) has proposed an emission trading scheme (ETS, another TLA we will all become familiar with). Stern seemed to say that emission reductions could be made with little economic pain, but Garnaut is less optimistic here. He discusses the need to compensate those parts of the community which will be most affected. 

The report was commissioned when the Labor Party was not in power and was to be the blueprint for future actions if Labor achieved government. Now that Kevin Rudd is Prime Minister,  the report is “just one input into the Prime Minister’s thinking”. Garnaut’s response that “he’s just one input into mine” highlights that the Government has moved from full commitment. The political challenges in implementing any of the recommendations are formidable, especially for Rudd who shows a disinclination to make any decisions that might upset any group. The opposition party is still expressing caution and pushing the line that as a small nation we should not take risks that might hurt our trade. The recent drastic rises in petrol prices have made clear that our energy spending is an important part of the household budget.  

The report envisages the ETS beginning in 2010: I am not optimistic that anything will happen so quickly. If it wasn’t so important, I’d enjoy watching the politicians squirm as they try to reconcile effective action and getting re-elected.

Garnaut has recommended spending on renewable energy research including a major effort in “clean coal” technology - another area I’m less than confident about.